Powered by a well-oiled RSS organisational network in key states, and by Narendra Modi’s dynamic and smoothly-calibrated election campaign, the BJP has swept to an unprecedented victory in the Lok Sabha poll, beating its own best expectations and creating a historic first for itself.
The Congress and its allies have been decisively defeated. This calls for thoroughgoing political and organisational introspection on the part of at least the Congress, which alone on the “secular” side is capable of conducting a meaningful assessment of defeat of such magnitude.
A key aspect of the re-evaluation of the performance of the party that is bowing out has to be why it lost so badly when it gave the country an average rate of growth of nearly eight per cent over a 10-year period, a trebling of the per capita income, and a trebling of rural wages, besides a doubling of power-generation capacity.
Having secured a majority on its own, the BJP has breached the pattern of coalition politics in the country that held sway for a quarter century. It is hard to say, however, if the end of the coalition era is at hand. That would depend on how Mr Modi runs the government on taking oath as Prime Minister. It would also depend on how the defeated parties seek to regroup and play the role of an effective Opposition.
Mr Modi’s campaign had several components — the promise of greater economic and infrastructure development in all parts of the country, a fairly undiluted appeal to majority Hindu sentiments, and an appeal to backward caste sentiment at the fag end of the campaign. The expectations of him are bound to be sky-high. We may only hope that communalisation of politics is not resorted to as the BJP leader seeks to consolidate his place as PM and gain control of his own party within which there might be enclaves that view his spectacular rise with suspicion.
The caution as regards the communal aspect is merited as Mr Modi carries the baggage of the great communal violence of 2002 in Gujarat. He would now naturally expect to be judged by his performance as PM. This expectation can be met if his political, social and economic policies are even-handed, and the cultural orientation of his government not tilted against the minority communities.
The RSS factor is also likely to weigh on the incoming Modi government. With the BJP commanding a parliamentary majority of its own, the Hindutva “high command” is likely to pressure the new Prime Minister to move swiftly on building the Ram temple in Ayodhya, enact a uniform civil code, and abrogate Article 370 of the Constitution. The PM would need to stand up to such extra-constitutional demands.
