New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on June 5, four days behind schedule, the India meteorological department said here on Thursday.
The forecast comes with an error of plus or minus four days. The normal date of onset of monsoon over the state is June 1. Last year as against the forecast of arrival of monsoon on June 3, the rains had actually arrived in Kerala on June 1. A year earlier, the monsoon had arrived on June 5. The southwest monsoon is crucial for the farming community which heavily depends on the rainfall, particularly for kharif crops such as rice, soyabean, cotton and maize.
The country’s 60 per cent farm land is rain-fed. The Met department had earlier said that the country could see below normal rainfall this year at 95 per cent rainfall because of the El-Nino effect which is generally associated with the warming of ocean water. In a statement on Thursday, the Met department said the monsoon is likely to advance over Andaman Sea in the next three days as low-level cross equatorial monsoon flow has started appearing over south of Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal.
During the last few days, it said considerable increase in the rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal has also been observed. The cross equatorial flow is likely to strengthen and deepen, which in turn would lead to further increase in the rainfall activity over the area.
IMD director, Kerala, Mr K. Santhosh said that there was no particular reason for delayed monsoon. “We cannot attribute any specific reason as of today. The window period is from June 1 to 9. It can hit any day from June 1 to 9. While the normal date is June 1, it varies from year to year,’’ he added.
The recent heavy rainfall would have no impact on the impending monsoon, he said. The state would get less rainfall for the next two days. But from May 19, there would be moderate rainfall across the state accompanied by thunder showers and it would continue for three to four days. “It is normal to have rainfall during the days preceding monsoon which are also commonly known as pre-monsoon rains,” he added.
