Lucknow: While the popular belief in elections is that a higher vote percentage usually indicates a yearning for change among voters this time in favour of Mr Narendra Modi an analysis of the voting pattern in Uttar Pradesh may prove to be shocker.
According to Intelligence Bureau sources, the voting percentage in Uttar Pradesh has shown a rather unusual trend.
In the first two phases of polls in western UP, polling booths in Muslim-dominated areas recorded a voter turnout of around 90 per cent while those located in Hindu areas could not go beyond 45-55 per cent voter turnout.
“We understand that the situation in western UP was highly polarised after the Muzaffarnagar riots but then the turnout among Hindus should also have been higher, especially since the ‘Modi wave’ was more pronounced in this region. It seems that there was a sense of complacency among Hindus about Mr Modi coming to power and, therefore, they did not make an effort to vote,” said an IB official.
Political analysts feel that if the Muslims in the first two phases have voted en bloc for one party, the BJP could face some upsets in the region.
“Muslims usually tend to vote together for one party and this unity becomes even more pronounced when there is a ‘threat’ from other quarters. If this has happened then the ‘Modi wave’ could fall flat in parts of UP but the BJP can heave a sigh of relief if the Muslim vote has been divided among other parties,” said a political analyst.
In eastern UP except Varanasi caste factors have dominated polling pattern but the Muslim vote, in general, has gone to one party mainly the one seen formidable enough to defeat the BJP in the constituency.
“The voting pattern in central and eastern UP has also been similar much higher among Muslims compared to Hindu voters,” the IB official stated....