New Delhi: The recent history of exit polls suggests that they had been quite off the mark in predicting the outcome of elections. Even for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, exit polls have given contrasting predictions in a few of the states.
By and large, exit polls, as had been the case in 2004 and 2009, tend to lean towards the BJP, while being a little pessimistic about the Congress.
In an apparent tongue in cheek tweet, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah took a potshot at the exit polls by remarking, “so one channel gives Congress only two seats in Rajasthan and another gives them 14. Did these channels cover the same election?”
If performance of exit polls is to be seen from 1998 onwards, they seem to have given quite a few hits and misses. Though the exit polls predicted were on the mark in predicting the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections in 1998 and 1999, they were off the mark for 2004 and 2009 elections.
In 1998, the exit polls were ranged in predicting the outcome by giving 249 to 214 seats for the NDA, which actually ended up winning 252 seats. And in 1999, the exit polls predicted 334 to 300 for the NDA, which actually won 296 Lok Sabha seats.
But the exit polls went horribly wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections when the incumbent Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was seeking another term on the “India Shining” campaign.
They predicted 284 to 240 seats for the NDA, which ended up with just 189 Lok Sabha seats.
