Mercifully, the charade of the American-sponsored peace process between Israelis and Palestinians is over. The Israelis have grasped on the intention of the mainstream Fatah group running the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip to come together to call off the spluttering talks and the US administration is grateful that it can walk off after nine months of John Kerry’s intensive diplomacy without too much loss of face.
The truth is that Israel has been using the façade of talks to go on encroaching on more and more Palestinian land on the West Bank and in occupied East Jerusalem confident in the knowledge that its friends in the United States Congress and Senate will back it, apart from the highly influential American Jewish lobby.
Mr Kerry on his part was sincere in seeking a workable compromise but had little room for manoeuvre between President Barrack Obama who had burnt his fingers on the issue and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his uncompromising stand.
Much to Mr Kerry’s embarrassment, a leaked warning he gave to Israelis, among others, in a private conversation that a repudiation of a two-state solution would result in Israel becoming an apartheid state lost him more friends at home. In any event, the Israel-Palestinian process which does not deserve the adjective peace will hibernate for a time.
Israelis will be happy that they will not have to fend off US pressure because they can continue to make the two-state solution impossible to attain as they swallow more occupied land, build more houses for settlers and throw more Palestinians out of occupied and annexed East Jerusalem.
Palestinians, on their part, have a mountain of problems. The Palestinian Authority chief, Mahmoud Abbas, is well past his legitimate electoral authority. In an effort to pressure the United States and Israel, he sought to go to United Nations agencies for recognition and has more recently sought to play the unity card with Hamas.
Obviously, unity between the two squabbling entities should be a good thing, despite previous attempts that have failed. But Hamas, in the Israeli and American lexicon, is a terrorist organisation that does not recognise Israel’s right to exist. Mr Abbas’ gesture in denouncing the Holocaust and assurances that the Palestinian Authority does recognise the state of Israel have found no takers in Tel Aviv.
Logically, leaving Israel as it is with all the West Bank and East Jerusalem territories it has occupied since the 1967 war can lead to only one consequence. There will be an eventual Arab majority of second class citizens in Greater Israel leading to a South African kind of situation, with Israeli democracy becoming one of the casualties. And despite Israeli strength and possession of nuclear weapons, the anomalies presented by such a state in the 21st century are obvious, leading to eventual isolation.
One of the problems in the spluttering peace process that has been in existence for some 20 years has been the obvious imbalance between the Palestinians and Israel, backed to the hilt by the power of the United States. For the most part, Palestinians have had to rely on UN agencies, US assistance and help from the rich Sunni Gulf states to keep their heads above water.
The split in the Palestinian movement between Fatah and Hamas, which led to the latter chasing out the former from the Gaza Strip, introduced a new element in the negotiations. Earlier attempts at reconciliation have faltered because of a lack of trust between the two sides.
The configuration of the present Netanyahu dispensation in Israel is such that there is no enthusiasm for anything approaching a working solution with Palestinians.
The Jewish state, which wants to be recognised as such, is happy with the stalemate that exists as the occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem becomes more permanent. The occupation will reach a point when any solution for Greater Israel will become an academic exercise.
Apart from the rock solid American support that has been instrumental in Israel becoming a nuclear weapons power and in cementing its hold on Palestinians and their land, the Palestinians’ fate has been dependent upon other outside forces. Egypt has been a crucial factor and signed a peace treaty with Israel to work for American interests in protecting Tel Aviv.
But the widespread Egyptian sympathy for the Palestinians’ plight has now been blunted by the new military-dominated dispensation after the coup against Mohamed Morsi.
True, the Gulf sheikhdoms have been bankrolling the Palestinians, but the impression much of the Arab world gives is of paying lip sympathy to the Palestinian cause while realpolitik plays a greater role. Indeed, the world’s attention today is fixed on the Syrian civil war and the bloodletting that goes on and on seeking a Western modus vivendi with Iran.
Palestinians therefore are more like orphans of the world betrayed by other powers’ interests, principally those of Washington. Even as Palestinian leaders flap their wings, there is little to show for their efforts.
One reed of support Palestinians are relying upon is the gathering movement for the boycott of Israeli goods produced in the occupied territories and encouraging Western disinvesting in enterprises operating there. It has met with some encouraging support but does not seem to have convinced the Israeli establishment that it should change its policies.
While the world waits to find out how far the new attempt at Palestinian unity will take the opposing factions, most major powers with an influence over the situation are content to focus their attention elsewhere. The outlook for Palestinians can only be described as pessimistic, if not hopeless.
