Though our political system is based on the Westminster system, there are many features that we have not borrowed from the mother of our Parliament. One of them is the shadow cabinet. Britain and some other countries like Australia have shadow cabinets, which are formed by the parliamentary Opposition. Shadow ministers are selected or elected by the prime Opposition party and given portfolios, which they are supposed to monitor. Thus, the shadow defence minister keeps himself abreast of all issues concerning the defence ministry and asks tough questions on the subject.
There is no guarantee that if the Opposition party forms the government, the shadow ministers would get the same portfolio but if they are, their foreknowledge of the subject would be a great asset.
Given the amount of lobbying as well as calculations to be made while forming a Cabinet, no party would let on who their probable ministers would be in the event of winning an election and forming the government. It would lead to tremendous heartburn among the party’s leaders. With coalition governments the norm, the demands of each party have to be accommodated, pre-announcing a Cabinet could be risky since the partners may have their eye on a particular post. Seniority, political clout, regional strength, proximity to the leader — all these things matter while deciding the Cabinet. Why show your hand.
But things are changing. For one thing, the relatively new concept of prime ministerial candidate has emerged in the last few years. Convention dictates that the Prime Minister — who is primus inter pares, the first among equals, is elected by the winning MPs after the elections.
During the time of Indira Gandhi, there was little doubt who it would be, but still the Congress party went through the motions of a vote.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, which emerged as the single largest party in 1996, nominated Atal Behari Vajpayee and when that government fell after a mere 13 days after it lost by a solitary vote in Parliament, he was declared the prime ministerial candidate during the 1998 elections and then subsequently in 1999.
In 2004, when the government called for elections before time, buoyed by the India Shining campaign and a weak Congress, Mr Vajpayee was called the prime ministerial candidate as if it was a presidential contest. Alas, the voters weren’t impressed and threw the party out.
This time round, the BJP chose to name Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate and challenged the Congress to name one too. The Congress has not risen to this call and analysts have been quick to point out that this is because Rahul Gandhi does not measure up. That may be so, (though it is debatable), but why should the Congress fall into the trap and convert it into a presidential contest? Indian elections are complex affairs, fought in 543 widely varying constituencies, there is no one size fits all solution nor personality. The BJP, or more accurately, Mr Modi has done his utmost to build this election into a personality contest, designing the entire campaign around him, so much so that candidates have stopped talking about what they can do and are banking on his name. “Ab ki Bar Modi sarkar” clearly implies that the vote is for him, not the candidate and not even for the party.
One corollary of this presidential contest is the creation of the presidential team. Newspapers have carried stories on the possible portfolios people close to Mr Modi will get, unmindful of what coalition partners would want. Not one opinion poll has suggested that the BJP by itself will win 272 seats, which clearly means that other parties will have to be invited to be part of the coalition. A J. Jayalalithaa or a Mamata Banerjee are not likely to be happy with crumbs like the railway ministry any more — they have grown in stature and are fully aware of how much they are required. Any “shadow cabinet” the BJP is working on right now therefore could come to naught.
Now Mr Modi has hinted that the party’s candidate in Amritsar could be heading for a crucial position in the next government. Chief minister Parkash Singh Badal of Punjab had earlier said that Arun Jaitley could become the deputy Prime Minister. This is to give the voters a sense of importance that they are voting in someone destined for higher things. But it fuels speculation that Mr Jaitley, once considered a protégé of L.K. Advani but now said to be close to Mr Modi will be a key player in the next government. Incidentally, neither Mr Badal nor Mr Modi wasted their time in saying “if the government is formed”; for them, it is a done deal.
Delhi is, of course, full of stories about who is hoping and gunning for what post. There are journos, economists, academics, ex-diplomats, Army types and bureaucrats and sundry intellectuals all of whom are nursing ambitions about being picked by Mr Modi when he takes over. Some of these are old time supporters of the party, others relatively new fans; some are ideologically so inclined and have just stepped out of the closet, others have hopped on to the bandwagon. Some are quietly lobbying, others make their ambitions very clear.
The most famous economist who has never won the Nobel Prize, Jagdish Bhagwati, has been quoted as saying he sees himself on an external counsel advising the Prime Minister. “I’d be glad to chair something like that, and I think that’s what they might do.” Not join, mind you, but chair — he has already decided his designation.
He also suggested his protégé Arvind Panagariya was a strong candidate as chief economic adviser to Mr Modi. What all those other economists sitting in New Delhi who have worked hard to bring themselves to Mr Modi’s notice think of this rank outsider is not yet known.
Call it optimism or misplaced confidence or even triumphalism, the line to jump on the bandwagon is getting longer by the day. Some names which were associated with the UPA government may also be spotted in the queue. Ministries, advisory posts, ambassadorships — there are many jobs to be filled. A more seasoned observer may point out that the elections have not yet been won, but in this moment of frenzy, who will listen to reason?
