The Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast that the country is likely to get 95 per cent, instead of 100 per cent, of the long period average (50 years) rainfall this monsoon season has raised fears of drought, decrease in food grain availability and inflation. This forecast, instead of raising alarm and the inevitable pessimism on the food and inflation fronts, should be taken as a wake-up call for the next government. The main failure is on the distribution front. After all, even when the granaries were bursting at the seams and thousands of tonnes of grain were rotting, there was rampant food inflation.
The country has advanced tremendously in science and technology and can tackle any difficulties that can arise. There are technologies and agricultural techniques available using which even rice can be grown with a minimum of water. We have scientists like Dr R. Mashelkar, and economists like RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, who can contribute their thinking on the subject. All this can be tackled and implemented if the country gets an efficient Central government and a new, full-time agriculture minister who recognises what is needed and can be done so that the El Nino effect need not spell disaster. A study by the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has pointed out that an analysis of severe drought years since 1951 reveals that droughts occurred when rainfall was below 90 per cent of the long period average.
