New Delhi/Chandigarh: With eastern Uttar Pradesh yet to go to the polls, the BJP is finding it tough going in Punjab and Bihar. Saffron watchers claim the BJP will get win three-fourths of seats in eastern UP, to cross 35 Lok Sabha berths in the state, but it seems the Congress may retain its base in Punjab.
In Bihar, the sudden resurgence of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD may act as a spoiler for the BJP-LJP. Reports from the state indicate while Yadavs and Muslims have gone back to the RJD, it is also drawing support from OBCs.
To reach close to a simple majority in the Lok Sabha, the BJP is targeting 50-60 seats in UP and at least 20 of 40 seats in Bihar.
With Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party contesting over 460 seats, some feel it may damage the Congress or the BJP in several seats. Being an unknown phenomenon in electoral politics, it is difficult to gauge the extent of damage AAP might cause, a BJP leader said.
BJP leaders fear if it fails to get 40-plus seats in eastern-central UP, it may get into a tricky situation in a post-poll scenario. Wrong ticket distribution in UP, mainly in the eastern and central parts of the state, is also worrying the party.
Punjab could prove a silver lining for the Congress. The party won eight of 13 seats in 2009, and the strong anti-incumbency wave could help it retain its strength, particularly after it put the Akalis on the defensive over “protecting” drug cartels.
Eastern UP remains the BJP’s weakest link and a strong BSP bastion. While saffron forces are not being able to make a major dent in BSP supremo Mayawati’s Dalit votebank, partymen are concerned over reports of Brahmin and Kshatriya votes shifting away from the party.
