The electronic media invest a lot of their energy and resources in opinion polls during the election season. As a matter of fact, the opinion polls add a great deal of zest to elections which can be put in a category of great Indian Festivals. It gladdens the hearts of some and disappoints some others. But off late opinion polls have become an essential part of elections.
What are these opinion polls and how are they conducted? Do these polls reflect fairly the opinion of the voters in the country? Should they be regulated in some way? These are some of the questions which have of late engaged the attention of the Government, the Election Commission and the Judiciary.
Lots of electronic channels have come out with their opinion polls and analysis there off. But no channel has clearly spelt out the methods they used in the poll. So it is very difficult for the public to judge whether the poll is very scientific and whether it reflects the views of the public at large about one party or the other. However, it must be said that there is no empirical evidence that opinion polls influence the people's choice of the candidate or party in any significant way. All that it does is it causes temporary satisfaction to some and acute disappointment to some others.
It is wrong to think the Indian voters decide whom to vote after watching the opinion poll result. Watching the opinion polls with a great deal of interest is basically the pastime of middle class urban voters. However they do not change their electoral preferences on the basis of these polls. They just feel either happy or disappointed depending on the fate, their favourite party meets with in these opinion polls.
Then what is the significance or utility of the opinion polls? Not much except perhaps that they give some very broad indications of the public mood at a given point in time. Infact if someone can develop highly scientific system of gauging public opinion or preference, by all means it should be welcomed. Then, why these polls only during the elections? They should be conducted periodically on the performance of the Government. This will put the Government on notice that the people are unhappy with it and therefore it should improve its performance.
Demand for regulating or banning opinion poll is funny. Of course the methods used should be made public for it to judge the poll's intrinsic merit. We have a tendency to regulate everything because we have great expertise in rigging the elections, fudging the figures and so on.
Many years ago, Shri O.V. Vijayan, the great satirist, said in one of his famous cartoons, “We have a whole veda on rigging the Rig Veda”. But if an opinion poll is found to be rigged or fixed it ceases to be an opinion poll. The moment people realise it; all opinion polls will go out of currency. Till then it will continue to tickle and excite the urban voters. So, there will be no need to regulate it through any state’s intervention. Opinion polls are objected to by the losing party. When they become the winning party they would welcome it. So much for the genuineness of the demand for regulating or banning them!
(P.D.T. Achary was Lok Sabha Secretary-General 2005-2010. Authored three books- Law of Elections, The Office of Profit and the Speaker Rules.
