If there is no “wave” or lehar (which will produce the right parliamentary numbers), there can be no “stability” — that’s what the image-makers for a particular brand are saying to us, in effect. So, there had better be a “wave”, then.
And how do the Pied Pipers create a wave? Obviously by talking about its “undeniable presence” over and over again so that everyone starts believing there is one before s/he goes to vote and, thoroughly brainwashed, votes in the desired direction. All for the sake of Bharat Mata, of course.
We’ll come to “wave” in a moment. Let’s put the cart before the horse and look at “stability” first. “Stability” is what the recent advertisements have been all about. The “supreme leader” himself has been talking it up: give us your vote and we’ll give you stability, runs the refrain; give us your vote and we’ll give you samriddhi or prosperity; with your vote that will bring “stability”, the nation will be strong.
Rajiv Gandhi won more than 400 Lok Sabha seats, but the stability he may have hoped for eluded him, although he remains a well-loved figure to this day in spite of his opponents’ sustained attempt to tarnish him.
Clearly, the “stability” of the political system is not assured through Lok Sabha numbers alone; there must also be other propitious factors at work that make for social and political equanimity which underwrite the system’s “stability”. It is this which keeps the chessboard of politics in play and the sanity within — another name for “stability” — intact. Else, it doesn’t work.
Can Narendra Modi be the samurai BJP is looking for? He is India’s most divisive politician ever. When the RSS imposed him on the BJP, his own party began to experience convulsions. These have not died down yet. Can such a leader be relied on to protect the country from shocks?
On the plane of social harmony, Mr Modi reminds Indians of violent and prolonged communal clashes which rock the boat and create internal security difficulties. On the economic front, he reminds the people of his own state, above all, that the average spending capacity of Gujarat households — as reflected in monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) data — is behind that of Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Uttarakhand. This is the case with rural areas (after Mr Modi’s claim of supplying electricity to farmers 24x7).
The situation in urban Gujarat is only marginally better. In urban areas, Gujarat gets ahead of Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand (but is seen to fall behind even West Bengal, which has long been thought to be in the throes of maladministration). To what extent has Gujarat’s asmita or honour been served?
The data given above (Level and Pattern of Consumer Expenditure 2011-12) are official figures released in February this year. In effect, among the major 20 states, Mr Modi’s Gujarat is better off only in relation to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, MP and Odisha.
Is that such a proud record, considering that chief ministers who preceded “the strong leader” had already put Gujarat on the map of development, as L.K. Advani reminded us not so long ago? Can such a leader provide “stability” to India, a nation of 120 crore people of many regions, religions, castes, languages and cultural histories and traditions?
As far as parliamentary numbers go, Prime Minister Vajpayee could offer “stability” with only 182 BJP Lok Sabha MPs and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with just 145 Congress MPs (in UPA-1) — both in the coalition era. Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao ran a minority government for full five years.
So, it’s not numbers that are vital. “Stability”, thus, is not born out of a “wave”. It is something else. It is the ability to win public goodwill through well-enunciated policy, and this follows when the leader of the government is of stature and commands respect.
If Gujarat’s economic data under Mr Modi ignores ordinary people, the way the state Assembly functions subverts democracy. Releasing the BJP manifesto for the Lok Sabha election recently, the Prime Minister aspirant said he would not act out of “ill intent”. However, in his tenure the state Assembly has functioned fewer than 29 days a year. And it functions only after ensuring that Opposition MLAs are bundled out! Can an example such as this bring “stability” to Parliament, whatever the numbers?
If numbers are not so critical to “stability”, as we have seen, it is clear the only reason Mr Modi seeks a high — even record — tally is to make sure no one in his own party challenges him for the Prime Minister’s job, as they surely will if the BJP’s numbers are not good enough to form the government on its own and it requires allies. This is why Mr Modi’s apologists seek to convince us that there is a “Modi wave” sweeping India.
