In the 91 Lok Sabha seats that went to the polls on Thursday out of a total of 543, the percentage of voting did not appear too exciting as reports came in, and in no way out of the ordinary, but there did appear an upswing toward the end. In the national capital, the time for the vote was extended to catch the late arrivals. However, in some states, it is not unlikely that the polling percentage might just turn out to be less than in 2009 when we have a clear picture of the Thursday voting.
The Delhi polling was, impressively, about 11 per cent higher than in the last Lok Sabha poll. However, this was the result of mobilisation by three frontline parties — Congress, BJP, and the new entrant AAP. Given this, the voting can be taken to be just about at par. Nevertheless, it was a lot less than the 70 per cent in the Assembly poll in December last year.
The April 10 votes were the first to be cast outside of north-eastern India which has only 25 seats, all the states of the region — Assam included — taken together. The first round of voting in the more populous parts of the country may have begun on a note not quite commensurate with the expectations that may arise from the Election Commission’s redoubled effort this time round to attract more voters, especially the younger generation exercising its franchise for the first time, if we look at the picture across the country.
Of course, in a large state like Maharashtra, the poll percentage may rise in the subsequent rounds of polling as political parties might be expected to throw in everything to get out their supporters. All things considered, the “wave” factor will need further refurbishing if it is to be sustained as a proposition. The high West UP polling has occurred in the peculiar situation of the Muzaffarnagar riots a few months ago.
In states like UP, Maharashtra and Bihar — or for that matter in Seemandhra and Telangana as well as Tamil Nadu — the contest appears multi-cornered. There could be four to five candidates in the field from major regional and national parties. The outcome in such situations can be tricky to estimate.
In times past, cadre-based parties, for example the RSS-backed Jan Sangh/BJP and the communists, could mobilise their supporters well and gain an advantage over rivals even when the polling was low in an election. To what extent this consideration holds is a matter of speculation in the Lok Sabha election under way. The communists are on a weak wicket politically. The RSS-BJP have showed inordinate enthusiasm for Narendra Modi on the formal plane but reports abound of serious organisational disputes on account of unsatisfactory candidate selection.
