Meerut: It is no longer a communal divide that is solely at play in western Uttar Pradesh, particularly riot-hit Muzaffarnagar, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The last-minute change in candidate by the Congress and the UPA government’s Jat reservation card have brought many new twists and turns in Muzaffarnagar, which otherwise was considered to be voting on communal lines. Now it seems that the battle in the city is going to be fought on caste equations, and not polarisation on communal lines.
The poll battle in this western UP city took a twist late Wednesday night as the Congress replaced its candidate by fielding Pankaj Aggarwal in place of Suraj Singh Verma, a Gujjar by caste. Mr Aggarwal’s nomination is virtually seen as an attempt by the Congress to split Hindu votes by rallying the large section of Vaish community behind it.
“The Gujjars are only 50,000-60,000 of the total population, the Congress may have felt there is no point fielding a Gujjar candidate and therefore replaced Suraj Singh Verma,” political science professor at the city’s Choudhary Ram Degree College, Dr Naresh Malik, said.
However, the Samajwadi Party is seen making an attempt to woo the Gujjars by changing its candidate from the constituency and fielding former MLA Chaudhary Virendra Singh, a Gujjar, replacing Gaurav Swarup (son of Muzaffarnagar MLA and minister of state for parliamentary affairs and urban development Chitranjan Swarup).
Further, the UPA’s Jat reservation card appears to have been working in favour of the Congress as it has definitely impacted the caste equations further, bringing a perceptible unease among the Tyagi and Gujjar communities. “Jats are now divided as a section is keen to go with the BJP while at the same time, many want to support the RLD-Congress combine after the clear message sent out to them through the Jat reservation. Thus a clear advantage to the BJP in the aftermath of riots has not become a reality so far,” said a local BJP leader.
However, the BJP is still trying hard to galvanise all Hindu castes in its favour. But the recent developments are not allowing it to have its way. Muzaffarnagar seems heading for a multi-corner contest, with the BSP becoming a serious contender with the support of dalits, a section of Gujjars and also a section of Muslims. Incidentally, BSP chief Mayawati mostly remained quiet over the riots clearly keeping in mind its dalit vote base, as Jats are considered to be the main exploiters in the region. Thus, the BSP dashed the hope of the BJP to rally dalit votes in its favour in the name of a umbrella Hindu unity.
With Union minister Ajit Singh led RLD, having strong rural presence, it is also helping the Congress candidate in a big way, as the Jat leader is seen as the main force behind UPA’s decision to give reservation to the community. However, the impact of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi cannot be brushed aside as urban voters seem to be getting attracted towards him for his strong pitch for development and decisive government.
The AAP also seems to have a traction with the urban vote base and both the Congress and BJP are closely watching out for the new party.
“If AAP manages to get even a small fraction of votes, it will be cutting from the Congress or BJP votes. Whether it is a momentum AAP is able to create upto the elections , it still remains to be seen”, political analyst Javed Ahmed said.
