Talking Turkey - Ukraine: The master and his stroke

Echoes of the Cold War could be heard across Europe and the Atlantic as Crimea was being annexed by Russia after a referendum on the peninsula described as illegal by the West. The United States and the European Union slapped sanctions on Russian and Ukrainian officials as well as their financial transactions. Yet the West has only itself to blame for the denouement of fast-moving events.

Over several months the European Union had been negotiating with the ousted President, Viktor Yanukovych, on a wide-ranging trade relationship that would have tilted a country of 45 million with an expansive land mass on Russia’s border towards the West. After prevarication, he declined to sign the agreement, accepted a handsome offer from Moscow of $15 billion and discounted gas.

A nation divided between a pro-West western portion and a primary Russian-speaking eastern and southern half was convulsed by mass demonstrations in Kiev’s main square for months, with officials and foreign ministers of the US and the European Union egging them on. A last-minute agreement was signed by the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Poland, witnessed by Russia, for early elections. But hardly had the ink dried that the decision was overturned by a hail of bullets and what amounted to a putsch, necessitating President Yanukovych to flee. A provisional Parliament was hastily convened with a brand new interim government.

With the West ostentatiously behind them, the pro-European Union demonstrators felt empowered enough to challenge Moscow, abrogating official language status for Russian, spoken by more than half the population, and giving charge of security ministries to men with extreme right-wing views. In the meantime, the peninsula of Crimea, the home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet inhabited by a majority of ethnic Russians was boiling. Ironically, Crimea had been gifted by Nikita Khruschev to Ukraine in 1954 when both were part of the Soviet Union.

Russian President Vladimir Putin read these developments in the only way a strategist would. The West was seeking to deliver a coup de gras to Russia’s strategic geography by bringing the land mass on its border into Nato entirely to encircle Russia. It was not lost upon Moscow that west Europe and the United States had broken a string of promises to take Nato into Poland and the Balkan states. Now they were emboldened to reduce the Russian Federation to the status of a second rate power. It merely firmed up President Putin’s resolve to take Crimea back into Russia because it could not place itself at the mercy of a West-manipulated Kiev for the future of its most important warm weather port.

Ukraine as the home of Slav culture has a special place for Russia, apart from the fact that more than half the population speaks Russian, many of them being ethnic Russians. Besides, much of the trade of the country is with the Federation, apart from the bulk of its gas supplies. There is a split between the south and east and the western half, which is primarily composed of Ukrainian speakers although Russian is also spoken.

No doubt the bright lights of the West have a lure for the young, and many Ukrainians compare their lot with Poland, which has prospered as an ex-Communist member of the European Union.

After the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine lived through a troubled time. There was the so-called Orange Revolution which was botched, with one of its leaders Yulia Timoshenko, who was imprisoned, now seeking the presidency. President Yanokovych won an election viewed as fair. But his regime was far from ideal, relying as it did on the oligarch, and a style of governance heavily laden with a version of post-Soviet despotism.

The consequences of the Ukraine crisis will be with us for long.

For one thing, there is the situation on the ground. Pro-Russian demonstrations have become a feature of many cities and towns in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. The simple fact is that the interim regime does not represent the aspirations of those parts and the decision to downgrade the Russian language was a monumental mistake.

It is only now that the interim Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, is making a first attempt to reach out by promising broadest autonomy.

As China’s abstention in the United Nations Security Council indicates, Russia’s annexation of Crimea raises disturbing questions. Moscow points to the case of Kosovo, severed from Serbia by Western intervention. Whatever the legal arguments, President Putin’s action is an exercise in realpolitik, to give a fitting reply to a serious attempt to weaken his country’s stature and standing. America’s own actions in intervening militarily in countries far and wide are an open book.

There are many crisis areas in the world requiring collaboration between the US and Russia. President Putin himself has made the point that relations between the two countries should not suffer because of differences on one issue. Problems need to be resolved on Syria, Iran’s nuclear programme and on Afghanistan. It will inevitably take time for the fog of the new Cold War to clear before the East and the West can sup together again.

One casualty of the Ukraine crisis is the reputed clout of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It was common wisdom that she was the one Western leader with an unerring hand on Moscow’s pulse. As a Russian speaker and a once inhabitant of the Communist East Germany, she had built a special relationship with President Putin. Besides, Germany has a healthy trade exchange with Russia. Uncharacteristically, she has been strident on Crimea. What the fallout will be remains to be seen as is the eventual outcome of the Crimean crisis.