Crimea voted Sunday for Kremlin rule and a serious international crisis is building towards a flashpoint that is certain to engender the birth of a new Cold War. Ukraine is a state where Putin's Doctrine runs head on into European and US geopolitical interests, but Crimea itself is an ancient and complex issue of race and ethnicity that has dotted the history of a very volatile region and which defies a clear understanding even to the people living in Ukraine.
An oversimplification of the Crimean problem in Western eyes is certain to lead to further complications and very early too as Russian Parliament may soon vote to formally annex Crimea if only to protect its strategic interests in the operational base of its Black Sea fleet. The uneasy truce between Ukraine’s West backed government in Kiev and Russia in Crimea ends on Friday and any scenario after that can only be loaded with clear danger signs for East-West relationships.
Neither the rhetoric of US Senator John McCain who dubs “Russia as nothing but a gas station masquerading as a country” nor the silly posturing of Russian news anchor Dmitry Kiselyov who appears with a mushroom cloud behind him on state television mouthing the words, “Russia is the only country in the world realistically capable of turning the US into ash,” is likely to lead to objective thinking.
Sunday's referendum is only the latest episode in a long history of conflict in Crimea between Ukranians, Russians and Tartars. The voting may have been held at the business end of Kalashnikovs, but Western cynicism is not going to change the population mix in Crimea which has an overwhelming presence of Russians (about 60 percent). The only signs of promise in Crimea is Putin, Obama and Angela Merkel speaking on the telephone, even though they only keep emphasising their differences. Economic sanctions is the immediate weapon the West can use against Putin even if Europe's energy requirements are met by Russian gas.
It is heartening that one point of agreement in the conversations between the leaders of Russia, Europe and USA is that more observers should be deployed in east Ukraine. The fear is the issue will not end with the annexation of Crimea as east Ukraine may be next on Putin's agenda. The very fundamentals of a country's sovereignty and territorial integrity are at stake and the world cannot afford such divisions today.
