Ram Vilas Paswan has had quite a remarkable political career. He holds the unique distinction of being a part of all the national coalitions, the United Front, the National Democratic Alliance and the United Progressive Alliance. He also holds the record of being a Cabinet minister without a break from 1996 to 2009.Governments may come and go, alliances may make or break, but he goes on forever, traipsing like a dashavtara quick artist through the Janata Party, the Lok Dal, the Janata Dal, and now his own creation, the Lok Janashakti Party.
There are two significant inferences from this track record. Firstly, he has never let ideology stand in the way of the imperatives of political agility. Secondly, this soulless expediency has in the past stood him, at a personal level, in very good stead. Like a consummate trapeze artist he has never found himself hanging unsurely on the dilemma of ideological choices. His political swing has landed him surely and firmly in a prized ministerial bungalow in Lutyens’ privileged oasis.
Things, however, went wrong in 2009. Mr Paswan and Lalu Prasad Yadav walked out of the UPA to fight elections on their own. In a sense it was a test of Mr Paswan’s intrinsic political strength. His strength is an assumed captive vote of the Paswan dalit community, which accounts for about four per cent of the population of Bihar. In certain constituencies where there is a Paswan community concentration, he can leverage the first past the post system to win a seat. But not withstanding this, in 2009 he did not win a single seat. What ensued then was a prolonged period of political wilderness. For the first time after close to a decade and a half he found himself without a Cabinet berth at the Centre. There could be, for a person of his inclination, few punishments worse than this.
What does the Bharatiya Janata Party hope to gain from joining hands with Ram Vilasji?
In 2002, our protagonist had dramatically walked out of the NDA to protest the Gujarat riots of 2002 which happened under the watch of Chief Minister Narendra Modi. He quoted principle and conviction to defend his action, even though there were rumours that his real angst was about being divested of the telecom and communications portfolio. For 12 years he sat astride the secular pedestal, only to make a U-turn in 2014 by joining the very party he had so roundly denounced. My view is that the BJP must be very careful in exulting about any fitness certificates given by the likes of Mr Paswan. If they say that Mr Paswan is saying what he believes now, then, logically, they cannot say that he lied when he condemned Mr Modi in 2002, and the BJP collectively in the 12 years thereafter.
Such exultation could thus be counterproductive, and given Mr Paswan’s notorious political “flexibility”, also premature. Who knows when the BJP may have to live down anything it says in praise of Mr Paswan? There are already significant voices from within the BJP unit in Bihar which have expressed disgust at the political opportunism of their party.Will Mr Paswan strengthen the BJP’s electoral chances in Bihar? Possibly yes, and possibly no. Paswans constitute roughly a third of the larger dalit community. They are upwardly mobile, having moved ahead of the majority “maha dalit” community.
If the Paswans support the BJP, there is the possibility of the numerically larger other dalit communities consolidating in opposition. Certainly, there will also be the loss of any peripheral support for the LJP among the minorities. Even within the Paswan community there will be hopefully at least some who will be appalled by their leader’s transparently unprincipled opportunism. Mr Paswan’s volte face will certainly further increase the vulnerabilities of an already besieged Mr Yadav. His hold on his party is dwindling. His personal standing has taken a well deserved beating after his conviction and imprisonment for corruption in the fodder scam. Senior leaders in his party are upset about his uninhibited espousal of parivar raj through the projection of his sons. There has been an exodus of his legislators keen to join the JD(U). Some have been brought back, but the disarray is deep and irreversible. In these circumstances,
Mr Yadav was desperate to patch up a coalition with the LJP and the Congress. That coalition now lies in shambles. The battle in Bihar is now between the BJP and the JD(U). Many people in other parts of India don’t know that in a 100 km radius from Patna are some of the most revered shrines of the faiths of India. In Patna there is Patna Sahib, where Guru Gobind Singh was born. A little distance away is Bihar Sharif, as revered almost as Ajmer Sharif. Not far from here is Pawa Puri, where Mahavira was cremated. An hour’s drive from Pawa Puri brings you to Bodh Gaya, the most important religious destination for Buddhists. And, completing the arc, is Gaya, a must visit for all Hindus who want to pray for the well being of the souls of their ancestors.
In this sense, Bihar is a microcosm of India as a whole. The battle of Bihar is about saving this plural religious legacy of India. In this larger battle, Mr Paswan will eventually be a footnote on a shoddy text of political opportunism of a kind rarely seen even in the ideologically barren landscape of Indian politics. He may exult momentarily at the altar of political expediency, but ultimately he will face his nemesis in the higher court of the will of the people of India.
