Allahabad: As you travel around Allahabad and nearby Dalit villages the one sentiment you pick strongly is that Netaji Mulayam Singh Yadav is certainly not the flavour of the season. With Congress too not in the reckoning it has left the field wide open for a tussle at the hustings between the BJP and the BSP. The mood is certainly pro-Modi but the BSP too has the Muslims and OBCs backing it.
With an eye at the upcoming general elections, BJP-NDA Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s close aide Amit Shah is taking farmers from UP on all-expense-paid trips to Gujarat to show them firsthand the state’s development and progress in the agrarian sector. Back home, the farmers are then encouraged to spread the word about Mr Modi’s achievement in the rural sector. “That is not all. Some farmers from Gujarat are also being sent to UP to talk about the supposedly successful Gujarat model,” sources revealed. “This is an electoral strategy never heard of, never used,” a senior BJP functionary said. The Modi team has apparently taken at least 1,000 farmers to Gujarat and the results have started showing.
Mr Modi at present is highly popular in Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 Lok Sabha berths. And it is not the BJP as a party but Mr Modi who is attracting the voters. Local taxi driver Ravi Kumar said, “Modi toh saab BJP se bara hain (Sir Modi is bigger than BJP).” Mr Kumar, who hails from Jaunpur nearly 50 km from Allahabad, added, “People in villages might not be knowing much about BJP, but they all know Mr Modi. This time we are voting for Mr Modi.” A social scientist at Allahabad, Badri Narayan, teaching at G.B. Pant Social Science Institute in Allahabad, who did not seem to have any love lost for the BJP PM candidate conceded that “Mr Modi has made his mark.” Somewhat grudgingly he admitted that “aspiration for a better life has been cutting across the deep rooted caste politics in Uttar Pradesh.”
He argued that the creamy layer of the Yadavs, Dalits and OBCs are now aspiring for a better lifestyle and a healthy economy. They feel Mr Modi is the answer to all the economical ills that have hit the country in the last 10 years. For them, Gujarat is nothing less than a Utopia. It is clear that Mr Modi has been able to hardsell his Gujarat dream to people of UP which is hit by economic backwardness and deteriorating law and order situation. He has also been able to make an impact following his rhetoric and ‘command over Hindi’, the social scientist felt. He complained that none of Mr Modi’s political rivals, “has been able to call Mr Modi’s bluff and expose the truth about Gujarat to the people of UP.” He also pointed out that the propaganda machinery of Mr Modi was ‘far superior’ than the Congress, the SP, the BSP put together.
A major citadel of caste politics besides Bihar, UP could be witnessing a change like Bihar. Like RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav could now be losing his Muslim Yadav combination. The OBC vote bank in the state comprises nearly 25 per cent of the vote share, which also includes the Yadavs.
Ramakant Yadav, a shop owner seemed to be disillusioned with his Netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav). He complained of “lack of development in Allahabad and rise in crime.” For him, Mr Modi as PM could uplift and improve the condition of UP. If the Yadav vote is showing signs of shifting from Mulayam Singh Yadav, his hard earned title “ messiah of the Muslims” is also under threat. On Monday, Mr Yadav had to cancel his visit to Aligarh Muslim Univ-ersity following protests against his government’s handling of the Muzaffarnagar riots. The Muslim vote bank, however, is not apparently shifting to the Congress as the party would have expected. The Muslim dominated Muharatgunj, nearly 50 km from Allahabad, falls in the Lok Sabha constituency of Kausambi, where the sitting MP is SP’s Shailendra Kumar.At a tea stall, a group of Muslims, when confronted, were almost unanimous in rejecting SP. Iqbal Ahmed, a local, flayed the party for “the deteriorating law and order” and for “using the Muslims as a vote bank and doing nothing for the community.”
The impact of Muzaffarnagar riots has hit the community hard. “This time it’s BSP for us,” Mr Ahmed said while a crowd, which had gathered around him nodded in unison.
What might work to the BJP’s advantage is that 18 per cent of the Muslims in UP are likely to go for strategic voting, which means that they would vote for the strongest candidate aga-inst the BJP in their constituencies. In stra-tegic voting, the Muslim vote is bound to split, giving an advantage to the saffron forces.
Also UP minister Azam Khan’s controversial reputation has also given an edge to the BJP in the state. His contentious role in Muzaffarnagar riots, his much criticised foreign trips and brazenly using the state machinery to find his lost buffaloes have not gone down well with the people of the state. While the SP is expected to be hit by a massive anti-incumbency factor, the Congress is not even in the race. A Youth Congress president of a district disclosed, “In 2011, I had made 4,000 members in my district. Today after months of hard work, we could make only 700.”
It could be the BSP supremo, Mayawati, who could possibly put up a fight against the Modi juggernaut. It was pointed out that majority of the 21 per cent of Dalits in the state were still with Ms Mayawati, particularly the ‘chamar’ community. Of 21 per cent Dalits, 12 per cent are ‘chamars,’ and this vote bank has refused to budge from Mayawati.
Missing in action from Allahabad and various parts of Uttar Pradesh is Aam Aadmi Party. There is hardly any AAP presence in the state. “Initially there was some activity after Arvind Kejriwal bec-ame Delhi Chief Min-ister. Today you do not see a single Gandhi topiwala,” said Mukesh Tiwari, a teacher who runs a coaching class in Allahabad.
