All except AIADMK look for alliances

Chennai: All except the AIADMK are desperate to cobble up an alliance for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

As pollsters predict a four-cornered contest, strategists in various political parties are engrossed in working out an arithmetic that could humble mathematicians.

They have every reason to be obsessed with numbers if one were to go by the way the votes were shared in previous Lok Sabha and Ass­em­bly polls.

A quick gla­nce at the 2011 Assembly po­lls stats and absence of visible anti-incumbency are definite indicators of an edge for the AIADMK in 2014 polls.

For, the AIADMK secu­red 38.40 per cent of the votes and won 150 of the 165 seats it contested in the 2011 Assembly polls, while its arch rival DMK managed only 22.39 per cent votes in the 124 Ass­embly seats it contested.

Social scientists like former MIDS professor J. Jayaranjan who cites the absence of a major poll issue and lack of clarity in the alliance dynamics thus far, argue that voter behaviour has been influenced by the national parties during previous Lok Sabha elections.

However, the Con­gress (which managed a meager 9.30 per cent votes in the 63 Assembly seats) faces enormous public ire and the BJP (2.55 per cent votes sec­ured in 205 Assembly seats in 2011) is equidistant from both Drav­idi­an parties and thereby changing the voting pattern.

Advantage AIADMK could get stronger if Captain chooses to tilt the Congress way.

The DMDK, which se­cured 7.38 per cent votes contesting in 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2009 (be­fore allying with Jay­alalithaa’s AIADMK for 2011 Ass­embly poll) wo­uld go wi­thout Parl­ia­mentary re­presentation as the contest would be red­u­ced to good old AIA­DMK versus DMK with the victory margin being the lowest ever.

DMK sources also hint that they would be ha­ppy having DMDK in their camp or would be content even if the actor-politician Vijayakanth settles with either of the national parties or go it alone in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.