Poll issues are entirely different - Rashid Alvi
It is true that the recently concluded elections in five states have been held shortly before the next Lok Sabha election is due. But the issues for a state Assembly are very different from the national election. For example, in Rajasthan free medicine provided by the state government was an important issue, in Chhattisgarh the Naxal question dominated the debate, and in Delhi people considered local development important. These issues may be of less salience in the national election.
For the Lok Sabha election in 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party has named Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate. Modi’s political background cannot be ignored. Even if we try not to make his antecedents an issue, people in general, and the secular community in particular, will definitely consider it when they vote.
In the Assembly elections, Mr Modi was not an issue at all. It is possible that in the eyes of the BJP, Mr Modi accelerated the party’s campaign. In 2014, however, the BJP’s proclaimed mascot will certainly be the main election issue, not only for the Muslim community but also for all secular voters in the country. The result in the Assembly election in Madhya Pradesh, RajaÂsthan and Chhattisgarh in 2004 had gone in favour of the BJP. Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister.
The ruling NDA led by the BJP took the state results as the semi-final and mistakenly dissolved the Lok Sabha by about eight months. I had then said in the Lok Sabha, “You have dissolved the House under a very wrong impression.”
I specifically noted that state polls were won because of anti-incumbency and that it was not the victory of the BJP but the defeat of the Congress, and predicted that exactly the same will happen in the Lok Sabha elections also.
In an article I predicted the NDA’s defeat. I am sure the truth will come out about the current Assembly elections in five states on December 8. But no one should make the mistake of reading the national mood through the state results. The mood for the Lok Sabha poll would be generated January onward. Price rise, development and communalism would be important issues. But it is my considered view that the biggest issue would be Mr Modi himself. His name itself is sufficient to divide the society. There is no question of people letting Modi become Prime Minister of a secular country. It is also my considered view that in case he takes over the reins, the general election of 2014 may be the last election in a democratic India.
Senior BJP leaders will support my view as they know him better than I do. It is a different matter that they may continue to be silent in the present circumstances.
Rashid Alvi is a senior Congress leader
Next: States mood gets reflected nationwide - Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi
States mood gets reflected nationwide - Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi
There is a strong wave against the Congress across the country. The manifestation of the anti-incumbency factor is evident. The Assembly polls (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram) have taken place just before the general election is due and the verdict will reflect on the national result as well.
There is a very strong wave in favour of the BJP and our candidate for Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. To counter it, the Opposition has activated its “dirty tricks department” against the BJP and Mr Modi as it cannot counter the issues raised by us and is shying away from answering questions raised by the common man.
Although every state had its own issues for the Assembly polls, more or less what is happening at the national level also has an impact on the state elections. Price rise, inflation, and the economic crisis are issues that have affected each one of us. These are the core issues that are affecting every village, every town and every city across the country. There is no home in this country that has not been affected by the soaring price of vegetables, for instance. And people will keep all this in mind, besides the corruption graph of the Congress, when they press the button on the electronic voting machine.
There is a general feeling that the Congress has failed on all fronts and betrayed people by not fulfilling the promises it made. For the Congress, the disadvantage is two-fold — at the Centre, where the party leads the UPA and in the Congress-ruled states where chief ministers have failed to deliver.
If we see the verdict of Assembly polls in the past few years, it is clear that any one party gets a clear majority. In the just-ended state polls also, the verdict will follow the same pattern. In the four states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh, the fight is between the Congress and the BJP. BJP-ruled states are known for their growing development graph and people-centric schemes. If Madhya Pradesh is known for the Ladli Laxmi scheme, Raman Singh’s government in Chhattisgarh is known for its public distribution system model. There are also several other schemes in these two states that have benefited the people.
Although regional parties also play a role at the national level, the Congress and the BJP will remain the nucleus, and the mood at present is in favour of the BJP and Modi.
Opinion polls have favoured the BJP in the current round of Assembly polls as well as nationally. There is growing discontent against Congress rule because it has failed miserably on all fronts and the BJP is seen as the only alternative that can take this country forward on the development path.
Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi is BJP vice-president
