In 2006, while attending a seminar abroad on the Iraq war, one speaker humorously said, amidst loud applause, “I am sure that things will work out. History shows that America always arrives at the correct answer after having exhausted all other options”.

America continues to pour money and arms into a bankrupt and terrorist-infested Pakistan partly because Pakistan shares a 1,500-mile border with Afghanistan, and partly because the United States is worried that if it leaves, China will step in. (Although, in my opinion, China is already well entrenched in Pakistan).

It’s for this reason, and India’s “no first use” nuclear policy, that Pakistan continues to export terror to India through terror outfits like the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), confident that American and Pakistani nukes will “restrain” India.

But things are likely to get worse.

If media reports are to be believed, then America is still “exercising other options”, though it finally appears to be close to the “correct solution”. By training Pakistani scientists in PALs (Permissible Access Links) for limiting the number of people who can fire nuclear weapons, America will encourage Pakistan to deploy and use tactical nuclear weapons against the Indian Army without fear of them falling into the hands of the Taliban elements in the Pakistan Army.

By doing so America may have laid the foundations for a nuclear armageddon because, unlike India, Pakistan does not have a “no first use” policy for nuclear weapons. Maybe someone with a sense of humour in the Pentagon actually believes that an Indo-Pak nuclear exchange will “solve the terror problem” since Pakistan will be obliterated.

I must clarify at the outset that the America-led “war on terror” in AfPak, though justified and in India’s security interests, will not succeed given the violent history of the region, the “cradle to grave” madrasas brainwashing Pakistanis, the “Islamisation” of the Pakistan Army since the time of the late President Zia-ul-Haq and its deep links with terrorists.

Indeed, more American military aid to Pakistan will further aggravate the situation in South Asia. The solution lies in Pakistan giving up its terror export policy, fighting its own terrorists, reforming the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), cleansing the Pakistan Army and encouraging the people of AfPak to rely on hard work and modern education to stop Afghanistan from turning into another Somalia.

This process will take decades since nations, like alcoholics, tend to get addicted to aid and need to be weaned away, despite relapses.

After some tough posturing, the Barack Obama administration has decided to split civil and military aid by adding “stringent” conditions. In a few weeks America is likely to push the new Indian government to “do more on Kashmir”. It’s time for India to confront the issue head-on by giving a guarantee to the international community that India, like in the past, will respect the International Boundary (IB) and the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, allowing Pakistan to safely move its Army to fight terror.

India cannot shift back its forces from the IB or the LoC since they are essentially being used to prevent the ingression of Pakistani terrorists, while our “strike corps” are located well inland.

American satellites can monitor troop movements in both countries. As a sign of goodwill, Pakistan must also dismantle the JeM, the LeT and the other terrorist outfits it sends to India to deliver its “death by a thousand cuts” policy.

I visited Pakistan twice in 2005. Personally, I felt the nation was caught in a time warp in 1947, but was completely addicted to foreign aid. Perhaps the medieval “warrior spirit” is not conducive to change and, hence, whilst India has entered the moon exploration age, Pakistan has become an “international migraine”.

America may have finally seen through Pakistan’s dangerous game of running with the hare and hunting with the hound.

On April 30, 2009, General David Petraeus, the Commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM, which covers all US forces in West Asia and South Asia), said, “The Pakistanis have run out of excuses”.

On May 9, he admitted that the “Al Qaeda has shifted base into Pakistan, while the Taliban are planning an independent surge”. Also, Mr Obama is the first American President to say that “the obsession with India as the mortal threat to Pakistan has been misguided… their biggest threat right now comes internally”.

On May 10, Asif Ali Zardari became the first Pakistani President to publicly state, “India was not a threat to Pakistan”.

Predictably, a day before Mr Obama met Mr Zardari and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai in Washington, Pakistan launched a “massive” assault in the Taliban-occupied Swat region and was promptly rewarded with tripling of aid.

Heavy collateral damage caused by Pakistani airstrikes has created more sympathisers for the Taliban, as thousands of refugees stream out of war-torn Swat valley. Similar collateral damage due to American airstrikes in Afghanistan is not helping to “win hearts and minds” either.

In stark contrast, India has never used airpower during its decades of counter-insurgency operations in Kashmir or the Northeast.

Maybe the Pakistanis and Americans can learn something from Indian about “winning the hearts and minds” of the people in what promises to be a long bloody war which may spread if the million-strong “Talibanised” Pashtuns living in Karachi join the action.

On May 6, Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani declared war on terrorists, while Mr Zardari and US senator John Kerry called on India to help in the fight against the Taliban.

Presumably this is meant to get concessions on Kashmir. India must, therefore, repeat its well-known stand that boundaries cannot be redrawn. And wish Pakistan well, but prepare for the worst.

Crystal-ball gazing is not a science, but I will stick my neck out. The immediate threat to India is a repeat of the 26/11 Mumbai type attack (by air, sea or land) to force an Indian reaction that will eventually tie down Pakistani forces to the India-Pak border.

If this threat is neutralised then for the next few years the ongoing civil war in AfPak will throw up other challenges as Pakistan heads towards chaos.

Prudence demands that India must prepare to face the almost inevitable westward surge of refugees, along with terrorists, in the backdrop of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of fanatics.

If America is serious about AfPak, it needs to ensure that Pakistan disbands the terror camps near the Indian border and must stop gifting fighter jets and warships to Pakistan, whose 5,50,000 strong Army is sufficient to crush domestic terror on its own, provided it does not switch sides.

Vice-Admiral Arun Kumar Singh retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam