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Monsoon yet to get stronger in Kerala

In all the places south of Kochi, the monsoon has been in excess of 100 per cent.

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The southwest monsoon has been off to a good start but there is a creeping concern that it has lost steam midway. The showers have been vigorous, but its strength is yet to cross over beyond Kochi. In all the places south of Kochi, the monsoon has been in excess of 100 per cent. But in the north, there is a disturbing deficiency. By now the showers borne by the southwesterly winds should have crossed Kerala into Mangalore.

However, IMD director S. Sudevan said that there was nothing to be worried about. “We expect the north to join the party soon, by June 9,” he said. “Our forecast is there will be heavy rains all over Kerala during June 9, 10 and 11, and then there will be a lull. But these highs and lows are part of a normal monsoon,” he added. The monsoon seems to be already creeping north, heavy rains, though sporadic, have been reported from Thrissur, Kannur and Kasargod.

The monsoon is expected to reach its peak a month later on July 1, and it will sustain at this intense level for nearly two weeks, till about July 12. However, the monsoon will keep up its relentless nature all through July and for the first half of August. Then, by the middle of August atrophy will set in. The rains will gradually lose its verve and will gradually grind to a halt by the end of September.

Unlike last year, the El Nino phenomenon is not expected to play the villain this time. “El Nino is expected only by the middle of August but by then the southwest monsoon would have run its course,” said Manoj M. G., research scientist, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research -ACARR, CUSAT. El Nino, at a fundamental level, develops when the surface water temperatures and atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean increases dramatically. This would mess up the normal wind flow and air circulation pattern over a large part of the country.

( Source : Deccan Chronicle. )
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