Since November 2011, when the 'Memogate' affair surfaced, the relationship between the PPP-led civilian government and the Pakistan Army, which virtually runs that country, have been at loggerheads, giving rise to intense speculation of an impending military coup. The confrontation between the politicians and the military has never been so prolonged in Pakistan.

In the circumstances, what has made the military stay its hand from effecting a coup is not clear. The standard democratic rule that the armed forces are subservient to civilians has never worked in Pakistan; the story in fact has been the other way round. Equally, what accounts for the extraordinary belligerence — or is it confidence — of the civilian rulers?

In the context of “Memogate”, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani told the online edition of China’s People’s Daily last week that Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and the Inter-Services Intelligence boss, Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha, had violated the country’s Constitution in making a unilateral submission to the Supreme Court on the “Memogate” affair, without first clearing their deposition with the government.

Reacting to this, the Army has made threatening noises and noted that the PM’s stand “has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country”. Whether this amounts to an indirect hint at a military coup is not clear.

But the Army has ordered a change at the top in the 111 Brigade — in popular parlance the “coup brigade” — which is in charge of the Islamabad/Rawalpindi area and has been called to play a key part when military takeovers have been mounted in the past.

In response to the harsh observations coming from the Army, the Prime Minister sacked the country’s defence secretary, a retired general, for “misconduct” and “taking unlawful steps”. The displaced defence secretary had taken the view that the Army was not answerable to the civilian government.

The conduct of the Pakistan Supreme Court also raises questions in these circumstances. It has uncritically accepted the Army’s submission in the inquiry into the “Memogate” affair, without heed to the PM’s complaint about the Army.

To compound matters, the country’s highest court has also threatened President Asif Ali Zardari with reopening corruption cases from the past (the President, under a special dispensation, enjoys amnesty from prosecution), Is the court seeking indirectly to give comfort to the military establishment?

Perhaps the Army and the Supreme Court have gone as far as they have because the civilian government is deemed to be not popular on account of the country’s economic crisis and its continuing relationship with the United States, in relation to which the Army has made some tough noises of late. On the whole, though, the situation in Pakistan still remains precarious.