We frequently have mini-crises in dealing with our neighbours, caused more regularly than we care to admit by complacency on our part, and its corollary — the idiotic thought, sometimes exacerbated by bureaucratic low-mindedness, that those on our periphery have no choice but to deal with us, if only to move ahead.
On Sri Lanka, the realisation has fortunately gone home that Colombo has suitors that we may not exactly be appreciative of.
The Bangladesh case shows that New Delhi’s ineptness in dealing with the hubris of domestic regional satraps is sapping goodwill and sawing down our best bets in Dhaka. But it is recent developments in the Maldives that raise the fear for the first time that we may have a stocked warehouse, but Male may look to the wares of others if relations with it are further mismanaged.
That is a scenario that should fill South Block with gloom, given the strategic location of the nation of tiny islands that sits astride sealanes through which a quarter of the world’s trade passes, and whose goodwill can bestow civilian and military advantages.
From what we know so far, the management of policy towards the Maldives has provided little evidence of either farsightedness or forethought. In the authoritarian days of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s 30-year rule, and in the brief democratic interregnum that followed under Mohammed Nasheed, Male showed us a rare solicitude, permitted us — rather than a rival — to help balance its budgets, manage its debts, permit us naval anchorage, and allow us the luxury of handling its strategic communications. This Sunni Muslim mini-state presumably did not lack options, but chose India. Those happy times could be behind us if our policy mismanagement continues.
The Chinese are making aggressive moves, and may not be above bringing the Pakistanis in tow to nurse the communal religious dimension, which has lately acquired salience. The recently dislodged President strongly hinted at muscular Chinese play in Male. It is remarkable that Mr Nasheed was pushed out of power through underhand procedures that had a whiff of an armed coup, and our representatives in Male had not the prescience to head off these unusual developments.
Worse, they may have been unaware of what was brewing, forcing on New Delhi the laughable view that the change of guard was within constitutional parameters. This satisfied no one and did not advance India’s cause. First a special envoy and then the foreign secretary had to be rushed to do firefighting. But we are not home and dry yet. It is the opportunity cost that matters in the Maldives.
If unhelpful powers take charge there, our worries about a possible encirclement of India will only increase.