Lebanon: A two-act tragedy in West Asia

If Lebanon is the weathervane of the Middle East (what we call West Asia), does the formation of a government after five months of post-election wrangling portend a hopeful sign despite the gloom induced by the President, Mr Barack Obama’s failure to move Israel? Hazarding a guess in a region littered with landmines is a risky business, but the Opposition Hezbollah movement’s agreement to join the government of Saad Hariri and accepting two Cabinet berths, is an indication that the Opposition is prepared to mark time while it awaits what the future brings.

By seeking to tackle the seminal Israeli-Palestinian confrontation head-on at the beginning of his term, President Obama’s rude rebuff by Israel on freezing settlements has essentially resulted in an impasse. The Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has had to offer resignation from the Palestinian Authority because he was placed in an impossible situation. The pretence of a peace process that has not existed for years rings hollow. And Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to draw attention away from the consequences of snubbing his benefactor and protector by casting around for a lifeline from Syria on the occupied Golan Heights.

Lebanon has always been buffeted by its neighbours and more distant powers as they settle scores among themselves. The Hezbollah movement was born out of Israel’s invasion of the country in the 80s, and the 34-day Israeli offensive in 2006 flattening south Lebanon, resulting in 1,000 Lebanese deaths, mostly of civilians, led to a stalemate and made heroes of the movement. Arabs have always lost the wars they have fought with Israel, and for a supposedly ragtag guerrilla movement to fight the mighty Israeli war machine to a standstill was a signal achievement.

One consequence of the 2006 war was that Hezbollah secured a veto over government decisions in Beirut. And the five months of wrangling to form a national unity government by Mr Hariri was really a struggle over the terms Hezbollah would agree to coexist with the pro-US and pro-Saudi March 14 alliance, named after the Cedar revolution, for the time being. Mr Hariri’s father Rafiq, the long-time Prime Minister and father of rebuilding Beirut on the ruins of the 1975-90 civil war, was assassinated in 2005 leading to the marshalling of pro and anti-Syrian demonstrations. The latter won, Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon after 29 years and son Hariri’s alliance of Sunni Muslims and Maronite Christians won 71 seats to the Opposition’s 57. Hezbollah was allied with the Shia Amal movement and the Christian faction led by former General Michel Aoun.

Government positions are carefully parcelled out to the different factions based on religious persuasion. The President must be a Maronite Christian and the process of honing in on Michel Suleiman, the former Chief of Army staff, took much time. The Prime Minister is a Sunni Muslim, the Speaker of the National Assembly is a Shia. The percentages have been shuffled once in favour of Sunni Muslims to reflect the changing demography, but nobody is talking about another exercise in apportioning power by downgrading Christians.

The tragedy of the Middle East, being played out every day, is marked by two Lebanese events, the suicidal 15-year civil war and the murder of Rafiq Hariri. The latter led to the crystallisation of two opposing forces, the pro-Western and status quo movement and the Hezbollah seeking a new regional order, and a United Nations investigation into the assassination, culminating in the hearings at The Hague. In fact, the court’s order to release four pro-Syrian generals because of insufficient evidence is a morale boost for Damascus, widely blamed in Lebanon for the Rafiq killing.

Indeed, the assassination of Rafiq Hariri was a body blow at Lebanon for a weighty reason. A self-made billionaire, he was close to Saudi Arabia and had the credibility and heft to marshal substantial funds for rebuilding Beirut. The gleaming and modern city centre, which I saw during my last visit, is a monument to a unique leader. It was his vision to restore Beirut to its pre-civil war glory of the acclaimed Paris of the East. And before the last turmoil caused by the Israeli invasion, Lebanon was returning to find favour with Arab potentates and common folk for its spectacular charms of sea and mountains.

How Lebanon’s latest attempt at unity will work depends, in large part, on regional currents. Despite Syria’s withdrawal of troops from Lebanon, it continues to exercise considerable influence on Lebanese affairs. Both Syria and Iran support Hezbollah in different ways although the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has developed a cult following in the Arab world after frustrating the aims of the Israeli military offensive of 2006.

In a sense, Israel is now fighting with its back to the wall because it simply cannot afford publicly to insult the US President and prosper in the region. Syria’s President Bashar Al-Assad has thrown a morsel in the French way in seeking a greater French role in the region. But it is unlikely that Damascus will fall for the Israeli bait of negotiations without preconditions, without securing all of the Golan Heights.
How the Prime Minister, Mr Saad Hariri, steers Lebanon through these treacherous waters remains to be seen, but much will depend upon the future American role. The Obama administration has now to rebuild its regional strategy between the ruins of its policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and foundering hopes on a deal with Iran on its nuclear programme. Both the US and Israel have been seeking to wean away Syria from Iran without paying the price of Israel leaving the occupied Golan Heights. Despite its domestic turmoil, Tehran feels it is sitting pretty, with the majority Shias in command in neighbouring Iraq and the failure of President Obama’s charm offensive in Israel, in the latter case the tail wagging the dog.

Left alone, Lebanon can reclaim its lost glory as a tourist haven for repressed Arab societies. But that is a precious condition the country cannot aspire to. The best Mr Hariri can achieve is to balance opposing forces in a manner that leaves him some room to take his nation forward. Lebanon can never be a Switzerland because the Middle East is not Europe.