Jharkhand election result is instability

The Jharkhand Assembly election was held after a long spell of President’s Rule on account of unstable political conditions in the state, but the poll results that became available on Wednesday do not hold out the promise of stability. Given the fractured nature of the verdict, government formation is likely to be a complicated exercise. Self-serving, opportunistic and ideology-neutral post-poll associations born out of nothing more than expediency could be on the cards. Such a combination can produce a government, but no government thrown up in such circumstances may be expected to concentrate on development. This essentially sets the stage for misgovernance, in which those at the top focus on fleecing the treasury.
Two features of the poll result stand out. The Congress and its ally, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) led by Mr Babulal Marandi — once the BJP’s most significant leader in the state and a chief minister with a solid personal reputation — ran a campaign against corruption. It cut no ice. The campaign was aimed at the activities of the leadership of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) personified by Mr Shibu Soren, who was briefly a Cabinet minister in the first UPA government and gave the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, a splitting headache. The Congress-JVM front also directed its arrow against the gaggle of independent political entrepreneurs exemplified by the former chief minister, Mr Madhu Koda, who rose from being an ordinary mine worker to presiding over a business empire worth more than four thousand crore rupees. In the event, the JMM, Jharkhand’s regional party that professes to espouse tribal interests, came up trumps and has more seats in the House than any other party. Mr Koda is facing legal processes and was unable to contest the election, but his wife and associates have done very well indeed. However, if the corruption plank came a cropper, so did the attack mounted on the question of price rise against the Congress, which was widely believed to be in power indirectly since the state was under President’s Rule. Is there a parable of the cynical voter here? Perhaps the electorate in small states such as Jharkhand have come to accept that corruption is a fact of life no matter who wins, and that no party can fix prices, whatever their claims. While the JMM is the largest single party, it is short of majority by a long way and can only form a government if it is supported by the Congress-led front or the BJP-led NDA. A true buccaneer, Mr Soren has announced he is ready to sup with anyone who will help him become chief minister, and could realistically be looking for the BJP’s endorsement. The BJP and JD(U) have been trounced separately and as the NDA. This could be a goad for them to back JMM and climb into power. The Congress is a shade behind the JMM in numbers and has done well in combination with the JVM, which has done very well indeed, considering the party is new on the scene. This front could look to rope in Mr Lalu Yadav’s RJD and the All-Jharkhand Students’ Union on the secularism plank. The RJD’s poor electoral showing has a larger meaning too. The party’s hand will be weakened in dealing with the Congress when it comes to lining up for the Assembly election in Bihar, about a year away.