Afghan: India in need of a rethink

A look at his country’s new Afghanistan line — enunciated from the US Military Academy at West Point on Tuesday — suggests that the President, Mr Barack Obama, is not a doctrines man, and that he is perfectly at ease listening to the dictates of practical politics. After the President’s announcement, it is clearer than ever that without grudging America its new plan, India must do its own hard thinking on Afghanistan where, for good reasons, it has committed more than one billion dollars, the most development assistance it has offered any country. More than any other country, and longer than any, India has known the meaning of Pakistan-nurtured terrorism, and geography is not about to change. As immediate neighbours of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan have been subjected by Islamabad to the same brand of statecraft where extra-state elements do the talking through the barrel of the Kalashnikov and the improvised explosive device (IED). Helping build up an independent Afghanistan in a manner that makes its social and political structures resistant to extremism and terrorism from the Pakistan side is in India’s long-term security interest. That is unlikely to be the case for the US and its Nato allies, if growing public opinion trends in those countries and the articulation of their leaders is any guide. In March this year, not long after taking charge, the US leader had enunciated his AfPak policy in a widely-noted speech which acknowledged for the first time that America’s mission to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan was closely intertwined with eradicating the safe haven that Al Qaeda and Taliban had found on the Pakistan side of the border. It was a fighting speech which suggested that the jihadist paradigm nurtured in that tribal territory threatened international — not just regional — stability and had to be destroyed for the world to breathe easy. The March 27 address came out of a “comprehensive” review, the President noted. Barely three months later, however, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, his handpicked military commander in Afghanistan, was instructed to once again take a “comprehensive” look at the deteriorating situation and suggest the way forward. While mouthing some of the President’s vocabulary, the commander’s report turned the March AfPak doctrine on its head. And now from West Point, we have yet another putative policy fulcrum being indicated on Afghanistan. Its thrust is that 30,000 more US troops would be introduced into Afghanistan in the next six months to neutralise the momentum of the Taliban, and that the American exit from Afghanistan would commence from July 2011. This may not necessarily amount to cutting and running. To be fair, the President did note: “We will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground.” Mr Obama also said the US will continue to “advise and assist” Afghanistan’s security forces to ensure they can “succeed over the long haul”. Some may detect in this a trace of practical wisdom. From the Indian perspective, the effect of this announcement on the Taliban and on Pakistan’s ISI will merit watching. These quarters are likely to be heartened with the Obama announcement, although no timetable has been laid down.
The President’s new vision statement suggests that the Pakistan Army taking on the Pakistan Taliban (not to be confused with the Afghan Taliban) in Swat and South Waziristan has influenced Mr Obama’s present thinking. The Indian view on these developments is much more contextual and nuanced. For America, there is another, crucial, consideration. Emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s, the US leader noted: “We simply cannot afford to ignore the price of these (Iraq, Afghanistan) wars.” The Taliban and its patrons will no doubt note this. So must India.