Indian intelligence agencies, both external and internal, are often blamed for doing too little, too late or, at times, not doing anything at all.
It is largely perceived that despite having a host of premier outfits like the Research and Analysis Wing, Intelligence Bureau, National Technical Research Organisation and the Joint Intelligence Committee, real-time information flow just does not happen.
For a long time, that used to be said about these agencies’ ability to gather and share intelligence on terrorist activity. Now, as Maldives have shown, such gaps exist even in India’s capability to monitor and stay on top of events in our neighbourhood that have a critical bearing on our strategic interests.
Does RAW have its men on the ground in Maldives? Did the agency really fail to gauge and report what was coming in the Indian Ocean island nation? Agency top-brass stoutly deny that they didn’t have their ears to the ground in Male. Highly placed sources in the agency claim that they had given a detailed Situation Report (SITREP) to the JIC over a fortnight ago about the unfolding events in Maldives.
The JIC is the nodal agency that collects and analyses information from various intelligence agencies and forwards to ministries and departments concerned.
“Sometimes, the information does slip through the cracks. But in this particular case, the Ministry of External Affairs was completely seized of the matter,’’ an official said.
A section within the intelligence apparatus admit, however, that RAW failed to provide enough information and in good time for the foreign office to respond. Not enough has been done either in intelligence terms or on the diplomatic front, they say.
Maldives has assumed greater significance than ever for India’s geostrategic interests, particularly with both China and Pakistan showing keen interest in increasing their influence on the island nation, although Indian intelligence agencies say they have so far not found any evidence of Pakistan-sponsored terror outfits getting a toehold in Maldives.
Still, it continues to be an intelligence and diplomatic blindspot for India, not least because neither the spooks of the former nor the mandarins of the latter are willing to take up postings there, if they can help it at all.
Nonetheless, former RAW secretary A.S. Dulat claims that Indian intelligence agencies are doing “a much better job”, compared to their counterparts in other countries. “There cannot be, rather there is no foolproof security mechanism anywhere in the world. Both our main agencies are doing good work. Even in the most developed countries, agencies fail to get timely information,’’ he says.
But Maloy Krishna Dhar, a former Additional Director of the Intelligence Bureau, says, that in Maldives, India may have lost an important outpost. “I really don’t know how much leverage we can have with the new dispensation,’’ Mr Dhar said, adding that India should have intervened more forcefully. “There is no denying the fact that radical Islamist elements have become more powerful in Maldives. That’s not good for us”.
At least now, he said, the intelligence agencies should keep a closer vigil on Maldives to regain initiative.