Washington: The alleged effort to put the best face on intelligence estimates about the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State campaign has not shaken the government-wide assessment that the airstrikes have so far failed to fundamentally weaken the militant group, current and former intelligence officials say.
The Pentagon's inspector general is investigating allegations that U.S. Central Command's top intelligence officials pressured analysts to discard parts of their reports that reflected poorly on the war effort in Iraq and Syria, resulting in flawed assessments that overstated American progress.
But the allegedly purposeful editing did not affect separate intelligence reporting by the CIA, the Defence Intelligence Agency and other agencies, and therefore did not undermine the government-wide intelligence assessment that the war is at a stalemate, the officials added.
The CIA and other agencies have concluded that the Islamic State has been able to replenish its dead with a steady influx of foreign fighters and has not lost significant amounts of territory.
Still, the potential intelligence puffery may have influenced comments by certain key figures, say current and former officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment.
In one possible instance, John Allen, the Obama administration's special envoy to the global coalition against the Islamic State, said in July that the Islamic State is "losing."
In his first remarks about the allegations, Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee Wednesday that he welcomed the investigation but could not comment directly until the review was over. He vowed to take "appropriate action" if the investigation concludes that intelligence reports were inappropriately altered.
"I assure you that we will do everything in our power to make sure that the whistleblowers remain protected and that there is no retaliation," Austin added.
The general emphasized that none of the Central Command intelligence reports would have been sent directly to President Barack Obama.
A former Central Command official confirmed a report by the Daily Beast website that more than 50 intelligence analysts had complained that their conclusions were undercut. One or more senior analysts from the command made a written complaint to the Defence Department inspector general in July, prompting an investigation that officials have publicly acknowledged.
The Associated Press reported in July on the broad U.S. intelligence assessment that the campaign had not fundamentally weakened the Islamic State's hold on large parts of Iraq and Syria, and that the inflow of foreign fighters was replenishing the group's losses.
The CIA estimates the number of Islamic State fighters at between 20,000 and 31,500, double to triple the estimate from 2014.
Reports in recent months by Central Command's intelligence operation, run by Maj. Gen. Steven Grove and his civilian deputy, Greg Ryckman, told a rosier story, current and former officials say. The former Central Command official, who has spoken to many of the players involved, said Ryckman made it known that he wanted assessments to reflect what he felt was the campaign's effect in degrading the Islamic State.
Spokesman Patrick Ryder said neither Grove nor Ryckman were available for comment. When analysts didn't agree, they found their sources challenged and their well-grounded analysis edited out, the former official said.
"It's not that they changed what went into the products, they took out things that didn't fit the narrative," the former official said.
Many of the analysts work for the Defence Intelligence Agency, but they were assigned to Central Command and were part of that chain of command. The DIA has its own separate intelligence assessment that tracks the more sober view of the rest of the intelligence community, officials say.
The intelligence reports emerged from the command's Joint Intelligence Center, which produced daily briefs and two- to three-page analyses that were distributed to other intelligence agencies and occasionally the White House.
