Kerala: CPM faces serious existential threat

Thiruvananthapuram: With the LDF suffering a shocking decrease in its vote share despite the total polled votes going up by 22,494 in Aruvikkara, the CPM will have to face trouble in future. What is more alarming for them is the phenomenal increase in the BJP’s vote share largely at the Left’s expense. While both the UDF and BJP increased their votes significantly compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the LDF’s share went down. The total votes polled in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was 11,99,91, which went up to 14,24,85 in 2015.

While the BJP made major gains, recording a huge increase of 19,255 in their vote share compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the LDF vote share dropped by 5,680. Observers say the majority of the votes went to Rajagopal’s kitty. The LDF candidate A. Sampath polled 52,000 votes in this Assembly segment in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. An equally strong candidate like M. Vijayakumar was also tipped to cross 55,000 mark, but the BJP upset its calculations.

The situation appears more alarming for the CPM in some of the panchayats. While the UDF and the BJP increased their vote share in all panchayats, the LDF could gain a slender lead of 100-odd votes only in Aruvikkara. In Vellanad panchyat, the LDF secured 5467 against BJP’s 5144, a difference of just 323 votes. In Uzhamalackal and Tholicode panchayts, the difference was 1100 and 1400 respectively, indicating that the saffron party is catching up fast. There is clear majority community consolidation in Muslim-dominated Poovachal panchayat where the BJP secured 3320 votes. Here the LDF campaign against the BJP and Modi seemed to have failed.

While the CPM quarters attribute the steep increase in the BJP votes to the Rajagopal factor and even refer to Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha polls in 2014, Neyyattinkara in 2012 and Nemom in 2011, there is a counter argument as well. Observers say in Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha and Nemom Assembly constituencies, Rajagopal was seen as a winning candidate thanks to the weak contestants put up by the LDF and UDF respectively. In Neyyattinkara, the LDF had fielded a CSI Nadar Christian while the UDF had gone for a Catholic Nadar triggering a majority community consolidation in favour of Rajagopal. In Aruvikkara, Rajagopal was never projected as a winning candidate.

Observers say there are enough reasons for the LDF to worry. While the possibility of a shift of even a minor section of Muslim and Christian minorities from the UDF to the LDF looks remote in the near future, the CPM needs to worry about the swing of a sizeable section of majority community votes towards the BJP.