Not everyone in the Bharatiya Janata Party had long faces when the party was swept aside in the Delhi Assembly elections. No clairvoyance is needed to comprehend reasons behind this. A BJP leader, whose gleeful face manifest itself at breaks during a TV discussion, asked — jocularly — if others knew why finance minister Arun Jaitley took a break from Budget making and concentrated on the polls? Before replies could be framed, the leader guffawed, “Budget ki disha nateeje tai karegi, to pahle kaise larte? (the orientation of Budget will be decided by the verdict so how could he have finalised it before?)”.
Just a day before Budget Day, the big question is the extent to which bold reforms-oriented promises of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would be tempered by political necessities. Not just the Budget, but several issues over the next several weeks would challenge Mr Modi. Decisions he takes now will demonstrate if he is intent on pursuing his own path or stick to the safe route leaving attempts to carve a permanent niche for himself in India history for another day.
This is the first full Budget of a government, which secured an amazing mandate. In normal course, the air on the eve of such an occasion would have been abuzz with excitement and expectations. Supporters of the government, if everything had been as per script, would have been gung ho in anticipation of several promises being fulfilled. Opposition parties in such a scenario would have been as they were on the morrow of the verdict: a demoralised lot.
But that is not the scenario that Indians witness. In place of enthusiasm in the markets or in the wider business community that endorsed Mr Modi’s campaign last year, there are apprehensions that government may put reforms on the backburner and resort to populism. With the beginning of the Budget Session, Mr Modi has entered a decisive phase of his tenure. Besides the Budget, he also has to shepherd several important legislations that he argues will boost growth and development.
The fate of the Budget is inescapably linked to various bills — be on land acquisition or on increasing the foreign direct investment cap in the insurance sector. The Opposition, sensing that Treasury Benches have begun the session on the back foot, is sure to examine the Budget more minutely. The ruling party has a majority in Lok Sabha and the Opposition parties cannot force changes in the Budget. But a robust debate will generate keen interest among people and have an impact on other key issues before Parliament.
Immediately after he became Prime Minister, Mr Modi began his tenure with a flurry of announcements. When questions began to be asked regarding when major reforms would be initiated, the answer was that the process would be kickstarted after Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand.
Subsequently, decisive action was put back to after the Delhi polls. The question being asked now is that after the drubbing that BJP received in the capital, can Mr Modi take a risk with the crucial polls in Bihar die in the winter of 2015? To what extent can the Prime Minister and his finance minister initiate programmes that are perceived as being pro-rich or not sufficiently pro-poor?
In the blueprint that Mr Modi pursued, the slogan of sabka vikas has also been a euphemism for reforms because according to Mr Modi development must accompany pro-industry reforms. But like several predecessors, Mr Modi would be well aware that for most Indians, reforms are identified as pro-rich policies. Its juxtaposition in most social discourses with populism, which is identified as pro-poor policies, adds to the risk of being seen as a predominantly pro-rich leader, especially if the regime is consistently lauded by corporates. To be considered pro-poor, it is often important in India to be criticised by industry.
Mr Modi did not gain political ascendancy in Gujarat as Vikas Purush. Prior to this avatar of his, he was Hindu Hriday Samrat — the undisputed upholder of Gujarati-Hindu pride. Political gains that accrued to him are the result of this image. The Vikas Purush persona was donned as part of image makeover. Post-2007, Mr Modi was the Mark II version of the original vehicle, though like the Ambassador car, it underwent only a frontal facelift.
But just as the core of new models of automobiles does not undergo a fundamental change, Mr Modi’s core political makeup has not altered. Mr Modi did not aggressively pursue the Hindutva agenda in the first nine months of his tenure. Yet, till his recent statement promising every Indian the right to pursue the faith of their choice, he was the master of silence.
Mr Modi faces the problem of convincing people that the amendment to UPA’s Land Acquisition Act will benefit people. The manner in which several parts of rural India have protested demonstrates that land acquisition remains a politically sensitive subject. Much preparation has to go before such legislation can be enacted. The task would have been simpler if affiliated organisation of the Sangh Parivar had been supportive.
But several organisations ranging from Swadeshi Jagran Manch to Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh are critical of government policies on issues like raising FDI cap on insurance and labour reforms. For the bulk of his political career, Mr Modi has been a pragmatist. Will he remain one or will he wish to resurrect himself from the setback of Delhi as Vikas Purush Mark II? Events over the next few weeks will give an indication of this. But before that the Budget will provide the first hint of the sign of things to come and the path
Mr Modi has chosen.
The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times
