The US’ normalisation with Cuba after 53 years of vicious confrontation holds an important lesson for the Indian leadership. President Barack Obama remarked on Wednesday that the US opted to “cut loose the shackles of the past” based on a cool-headed realisation that the “outdated approach” didn’t make sense.
Of course, no two analogous situations exist in politics and the India-Pakistan adversarial relationship has own complexity. But the salience is relevant – reprioritisation of national strategies in a rapidly changing regional and international milieu.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi began well with a purposive initiative in May to engage his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif. But the momentum was lost and revisionist tendencies crept into centrestage – ‘tit-for-tat’ syndrome, self-righteous attitudes, security-driven policies and cat-and-mouse games at the LOC and sheer absence of a ‘big picture’.
As the Modi government crosses the 200th day in office, the dismal picture is that like the previous government, it appears meandering, and an impression becomes unavoidable that grandstanding masquerades as Pakistan policy.
The ‘big picture’ is that there is a likelihood of the infamous AfPak morphing into the AfPakIn (also embracing India). The US has warned Delhi on the likelihood of large-scale terrorist strikes in the coming weeks. However, all the three countries are in denial mode. In none of them the security agencies are held up to public accountability, notwithstanding their claim to be functioning democracies. Security agencies play a key role in the conduct of neighbourhood policies but only a clutch of people at the pinnacle of power would know what they are actually up to.
All three countries accuse each other of sponsoring terrorism. Suffice it to say, a concerted, coordinated counter-terrorist work cannot be undertaken in the region, which of course significantly increases the space and freedom for terrorist groups to operate in the region.
Although terrorist groups stake claim to Islamism, it is secular politics that is providing the breeding ground – principally, the Afghan civil war, disputed Durand Line and the festering ‘Pashtunistan’ issue, Baluchi nationalism, and the unresolved Kashmir problem.
What is the way forward for the Modi government? Most certainly, the Indian mindset needs to change. That is the bottom line. India and Pakistan are sailing in the same boat. Second, India should work toward the ‘big picture’ now that a strong government is likely to be formed in J&K, enjoying unprecedented legitimacy following the recent election. Significantly, Pakistan did not seriously attempt to disrupt the polls in J&K.
Third, Pakistan is bogged down in a grave domestic crisis that will take time to overcome. Meanwhile, Pakistani forces are concentrating on the Afghan border and on internal security. Instead of threatening to inflict ‘pain’ on Pakistan, India could act with restraint and understanding. Without doubt, the Peshawar school attack is a defining moment. Pakistan cannot afford to carry on as before. Sharif should be given the benefit of the doubt when he insists that Pakistan will no more differentiate between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban. Sharif’s decision to lock up Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, operations commander of the LeT should be welcomed.
Was it the right thing to have done when India plunged into the Afghan civil war and began taking sides in the late 1990s? Hundreds of millions of dollars have been squandered away. Of what avail? A clean break is needed. Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan are no less legitimate or non-negotiable than India’s in Nepal or Bhutan. India should work with a team spirit to stabilise Afghanistan, which is in its vital interests. The TAPI project opens new vistas of regional cooperation, which would dovetail with Modi’s development agenda. China’s Silk Road strategy doesn’t have to be the only show in town.
Unfortunately, there is a stream of opinion in India, which is apparently shared by the security establishment, that it is payback time for Pakistan’s ‘low intensity war’. Such revenge mentality is recipe for seamless mutual animosities and will only work to the detriment of regional security stability and distract attention and resources from pursuing the development agenda.
At a time when the international community is promoting a nascent process of AfPak thaw, when the US is pinning hopes on the Pakistani military leadership, when the prospects of TAPI gas pipeline are brighter than ever before, Modi should seriously give thought to resuming the dialogue with Sharif.
What Mr Obama said on Wednesday while announcing the shift in Cuba policy holds good for Modi: “Change is hard – in our own lives, and in the lives of nations. And change is even harder when we carry the heavy weight of history on our shoulders. But today we are making these changes because it is the right thing to do.”
(The writer is a former diplomat)
