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El Nino effect: Drought, industrial slowdown, inflation to follow?

The repercussions could be drastic – droughts, industrial slowdown

Mumbai: Though the Monsoons have arrived in Kerala, it is still delayed for the rest of the country. Even for teh state, it was a week-long wait.

There has been a warning of a drought due to the looming El Nino effect and a possible industrial slowdown, according to an Assocham report.

In the paper on “El Nino, Drought and Growth Concerns of the Indian Economy”, the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham) warned of drought and industrial slowdown, the Hindu reported.

“Owing to the El Nino factor, drought hitting the economy is a matter of grave concern,” said Assocham Secretary-General DS Rawat. He blamed 'weak business confidence, high domestic inflation and revenue-centric fiscal expansionary stance adopted by the Government for pulling down economic growth,' in the report.

Deficiency in rains could also impact food inflation, which is a matter of concern to policy makers, it said. A rise in food inflation has disastrous consequences on growth. Hence an ‘effective government action’ is necessary. In the report, Rawat also emphasised on policy prudence, stressing the need for expanding the farm insurance cover and suggested the Government advice banks and financial institutions to settle crop insurance claims in the drought hit areas without delay.

As per the IMD, the monsoons were expected to reach Tamil Nadu and Bay of Bengal by 7th of June. The delay, though, continues. The IMD charts also showed the possible turn in the proceedings for a period of seven days, predicted the possibility of the first major weather system of the season evolving over southeast Arabian Sea within four days.

According to IMD’s prediction, in 2014, India is likely to have below-average monsoon rainfall. Rainfall is expected to be 95 per cent of the long-term average, with an error margin of 5 per cent, the IMD said. The average rainfall in India is defined as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire season.

Few months back, the US Climate Prediction Centre along with the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction predicted signs of cyclone genesis in the Arabian Sea along with the onset of monsoon.

According to a report in The Hindu, if this were to happen, it could enhance cloudiness over the tropical Indian Ocean and enhance monsoonal activity in the Bay of Bengal. This would make for ideal conditions for the monsoon to progress along the west coast and take the Arabian Sea arm of the monsoon to where it should reach by that time - central India.

According to a report in The Times of India, “a government panel has been working on re-determining the normal onset dates of monsoon as the actual arrival of monsoon is ususally delayed by almost 15 days in central and north-west India as compared to the normal dates.”

The normal onset dates of monsoon are not that accurate anymore and need to be reset. A study carried out by six meteorologists of IMD New Delhi and IMD Pune three years ago had suggested a set of new normal onset dates for different cities in India, the report said. The new dates have been derived using rainfall data of 569 stations from 1971 to 2000.

Going by tradition, the monsoon hits Kerala on June 1 and covers the whole country by mid-July. Half the country is usually covered in the first 15 days. The rains reach central India by the third week of June and western areas by the first week of July. It usually arrives in Mumbai approximately 10 days after it reaches Kerala, reaches Delhi by the end of June, and covers the rest of India by mid-July.

( Source : dc )
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