Chennai: Two regional straps bucked the trend against a national wave – J. Jayalalithaa and Mamata Banerjee. Their success appears to be the only exceptions to the general mood that it is a national vote that counted in this general election. Most other regional chieftains have been cut to size leaving only the two ladies whose vote gathering charisma stood up against Modi riding the crest of a wave.
The Mulayams and the Mayawatis may have imagined playing a large role in an era of coalition politics that has lasted 25 years since V.P. Singh was invited to be PM in 1989. The ending of that era with an overwhelming vote for one party was foreseen by few save Narendra Modi’s campaign managers. Such success in the era of marketing may have been a coup staged by the B school grads behind Modi. But the vote goes far beyond that. This is a vote for stability, a vote for change from the failures of the previous national regime that was backed by a hotchpotch coalition of parties united only by a self defined brand of secularism in a 10-year run.
Jayalalithaa was one of the few who assessed her own strengths early and went for the popular vote on her own. She had reached out to every poor household giving them something to cheer about – a grinder, a mixie, a pair of socks, uniform for the school kids and so son. She relied on the women’s vote to be able to stand up to any national wave which she knew would have only a limited impact in a state far removed from the national mainstream in the political sense.
She saw the DMK as her only rival and she was prepared to back herself against a party that is seen as a defender of the corrupt. She was not afraid of facing the consolidation of the Muslim vote in favour of her main Dravidian rival. Locally, it is seen as a master strategy that she played the uninterested spectator even as she willed ‘Captain’ Vijayakanth into an alliance that would affect her the least. DMK plus Vijayakanth may have been a threat but not if Captain’s vote share went to bolster a non-Tamil Nadu force.
Elsewhere, the satraps fell by the wayside. But, to the end, Jaya was betting on playing a big national role only if the need for a Third Front arose. She was willing to keep both BJP and the Congress waiting for her support, which is why she refused to swing one way or the other till the results were out. Her gamble paid off in her being able to stave off even the anti-incumbency factor that hinged largely on the power shortage in the state. There too she was clever in passing off the lack of electricity as a Delhi conspiracy.
She is aware that the ruling dispensation would still need the AIADMK in the Rajya Sabha where legislation could run into stumbling blocks. She can now lend support based on issues without having to be seen to be partisan. She has an old friendship with the victor Modi to fall back on as she knows she needs a friendly Centre to push her state’s needs because she has less than two years in which to consolidate her position before she seeks the Assembly vote in 2016.
Besides Modi and the BJP and allied, Jaya appears to be the only winner who may have made a few political remarks against Modi but never in the snide or outright offensive manner of Mamata. After Modi, Jayalalithaa may be seen as the biggest winner in the 2014 vote.
