Top

Number-crunching ahead of D-Day: Is horsetrading at its peak?

If BJP’s numbers prove better than expected, allies won’t be able to dictate terms

This is the season of the witch. After an arduous election process, the megaphones have fallen silent. All sides have now taken to silent work wooing potential allies.

This suggests that horse-trading must be at its peak, and even a lame quadruped would command a handsome price, to say nothing of the thoroughbreds. Both sides are at it, the BJP to tot up the numbers for Narendra Modi and the Congress and its allies to negate that eventuality by putting on a show of their own.

The exit polls conducted by various agencies for a variety of television channels are generally suggesting an easy majority for the BJP and its allies, and, pari passu, a poor showing for the Congress and its partners. Whether this holds good on May 16 when the official counting is conducted can only be a matter of conjecture at this stage.

In the Lok Sabha elections of 2004 and 2009, the exit polls were off the mark. This hasn’t stopped pollsters from trying their luck again. This is quite simply because such programmes attract considerable viewer interest, and also hefty advertising.

Thus, a lot of money is also riding on such an exercise. Also, it needs to be said that the exit polls should have to project a certain kind of data in order to be consistent with the opinion polls conducted by more or less the same agencies only weeks earlier.

For the BJP, the election campaign began as long ago as last September. This is a record of sorts. Rightly calculating that another loss after 2004 and 2009 would put the BJP in unfathomable misery, the RSS stepped up to the plate and took charge of preparing for the election, picking Mr Modi for the prized role.

The leader from Gujarat did not disappoint in the manner he approached his task. Contrariwise, the Congress, which began its campaign much later only in January this year looked defeatist in the early phase of its election effort.

The tempo picked up subsequently but the party will need to introspect no matter which way the result goes its electioneering did seem to lack punch; even the campaign material texts appeared dull and unimaginative.

If the BJP’s numbers in the end prove better than expected, prospective allies won’t easily be able to dictate terms even in the matter of choice of portfolios in government.

The Congress will be able to beat the BJP’s game and attract state parties to deny the numbers for government-making only if it reaches a certain threshold even in defeat. From that it will need yet another jump to be able to cobble together a government, whether led by itself or by an ally.

( Source : dc )
Next Story